Fed: Political trench warfare has Turnbull struggling for gains
By Kate Hannon, National Political Editor24 Apr 2009 3:18 PM
CANBERRA, April 24 AAP - As Australians observe the sacrifice of our war dead this weekend they could well be unaware of a form of political trench warfare playing out on their own doorstep.
As the Labor government and the federal opposition lob verbal bombs at one another the gains are often minor and then lost altogether within days.
Take the sudden influx of asylum seekers over the past few weeks and the elevation into the political stratosphere of the issue by the tragic boat explosion that killed five Afghan men and seriously injured more than 30.
First the government was on the back foot over whether it would be upfront and release all available information on what happened.
Then the opposition nearly stepped on a mine when some of its ranks claimed the explosion was proof that Labor's softer policy was a tragedy waiting to happen.
It persisted, claiming Labor's abolition of temporary protection visas (TPV) and changes to immigration detention last August had removed all traces of the Howard government's hardline border protection policy effectively putting out the welcome mat to asylum seekers.
But Labor batted back, citing the "push factors" of war and civil unrest as the main reasons there were more people arriving mostly from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
By early this week a Newspoll revealed little had been gained by Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull on the issue, and that Turnbull's own disapproval rating had actually increased by four points to dangerously high 46 per cent.
Still, the debate is far from over with many more boats expected, weather permitting.
At least the opposition can feel a little vindicated in its stance after the ABC aired an interview on Friday with an Iraqi man in Indonesia saying he was planning to sail to Australia after he heard Kevin Rudd had relaxed the rules.
But a much harder row to hoe for the opposition is the economy and the perception being furiously spun by the government that Turnbull is a kind of "Dr No" of politics.
Turnbull is being portrayed as a 21st century version of Groucho Marx's college principal in the Marx Brothers' film Horse Feathers, who famously sang as he lectured his students "Whatever it is, I'm against it!"
In his defence, Turnbull says it's his job to oppose bad policy including the alcopops excise, the carbon pollution reduction scheme and Labor's two economic stimulus packages.
Turnbull has already flagged he won't support a third stimulus package if it is anything like the previous two, with cash handouts and few incentives for business.
And the government has flagged the likelihood of more stimulus in the budget, due to be handed down by Treasurer Wayne Swan on the first day parliament resumes on May 12.
Turnbull and his treasury spokesman Joe Hockey have been consistent in their criticism of the government's "cash splash" - the $21 billion paid out in cash bonuses since December as part of nearly $90 billion in economic stimulus.
The latest International Monetary Fund report, released during the week, made the point that had developed nations not embarked on programs of economic stimulus then the global economy would be in a worse position than it is at present.
Earlier this week, the government used this to bash the opposition about the head, and Rudd accused Turnbull and Hockey of running the kind of shonky argument that would make snake-oil merchants proud.
Rudd even compared the two to the Dodgy Brothers, a couple of shady salesman of anything slightly dodgy from the long forgotten Australia, You're Standing in it comedy show of 25 years ago.
Turnbull received a lifeline on Thursday when the IMF's chief economist Olivier Blanchard said stimulus spending must give a priority to infrastructure spending on road, rail and ports rather than cash handouts.
It was the release of the IMF report and its forecast that Australia's economy will shrink by 1.4 per cent this year and unemployment will climb from its present 5.7 per cent to 7.8 per cent next year that changed the atmosphere.
The government finally bit the bullet and admitted Australia is in recession and proceeded to dole out portentous warnings about the May budget.
Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner warned that the $200 billion debt limit set in February might be exceeded, while Rudd and Swan said it would be the toughest budget to frame in our lifetimes.
The week ended with the first flurry of budget speculation and an acknowledgement the government will look at winding back some of the so-called middle class welfare.
The government has confirmed it will not continue the generous but temporary increase in the first home buyers grant beyond June 30 because, as Rudd himself says, "all good things must come to an end".
Whether or not we can read more into that remains to be seen.
AAP keh/tnf/mo
